Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Louisiana USM @ UL

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

4-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 5:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

2-4  |  Home

10
Key Game
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Reed Harradine None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
📊
LOUISIANA
0%
SOUTHERN MISS --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Louisiana)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

30.9%

Louisiana Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

USM By 1-6 points

12.9%

USM By 7-13 points

9.6%

UL By 1-6 points

16.5%

UL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SOUTHERN MISS
46
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
24
SOUTHERN MISS
27
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Louisiana (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 USM @ UL 22 - 10
Oct 5, 2024 UL @ USM 23 - 13
Nov 9, 2023 USM @ UL 34 - 31
Oct 27, 2022 UL @ USM 24 - 39
Dec 17, 2016 USM @ UL 28 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.7% more
Louisiana: 1.3 vs Southern Miss: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +25.9% more
Southern Miss: 23.7 vs Louisiana: 17.5
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Southern Miss: 399.9 vs Louisiana: 342.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 39.0 22
UL Score 46.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 23.7 19.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 155.6 / 163.1 221.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 342.1 / 399.9 356.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
USM
UL
USM
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Arch Manning's Heisman Bid Falters as Voters Overlook Texas QB
thecomeback 11 hours, 59 minutes ago