HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Road
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
0-0 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
THUNDER
0%
ROCKETS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
HOU By 1-7 points
21.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
10.7%
OKC By 1-7 points
27.2%
OKC By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
123
HOUSTON
Oklahoma City
126
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
HOU @ OKC
112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026
OKC @ HOU
111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025
HOU @ OKC
124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025
OKC @ HOU
111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025
HOU @ OKC
128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.1% more
Oklahoma City: 17.1
vs
Houston: 14.6
Steals (L5)
+16.3% more
Oklahoma City: 13.1
vs
Houston: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.0% more
Houston: 46.9
vs
Oklahoma City: 42.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Houston: 83.5%
vs
Oklahoma City: 78.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
123.0
124
OKC Score
126.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 37.3
25.0 / 28.2
Assists
24.5 / 26.4
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.9 / 6.1
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 48.1
44.2 / 44.3
Free Throw %
78.9 / 83.5
80.0 / 87.1
Rebounding
42.2 / 46.9
38.0 / 52.0
Steals
13.1 / 11.3
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 14.6
12.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
HOU
OKC
HOU
ML
70%
80-34
61%
69-44
48%
46-49
59%
51-35
ATS
73%
83-30-1
62%
70-43
48%
46-49
59%
51-35
TTL
67%
76-38
51%
58-55
100%
95-0
100%
86-0
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