Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Lakers GS @ LAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-0  |  Road

119
FINAL
Tue, Oct 21 • 10:00 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

0-0  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
WARRIORS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

65.5%

Lakers Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
127
GOLDEN STATE
123
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.1% more
Golden State: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.6
Assists (L5) +20.7% more
Golden State: 28.1 vs Los Angeles: 22.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Golden State: 21.3 vs Los Angeles: 18.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Golden State: 46.0% vs Los Angeles: 43.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 127.0 119
LAL Score 123.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 35.9 25.0 / 42.5
Assists 22.3 / 28.1 23.0 / 29.0
Blocks 6.3 / 3.7 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 46.0 54.5 / 48.7
Free Throw % 77.8 / 76.9 60.7 / 89.7
Rebounding 44.3 / 44.2 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.0 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 18.7 / 21.3 20.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
GS
LAL
GS
ML
61% 68-43
55% 95-79
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 101-73
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
77% 134-40
100% 91-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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