Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Titans NE @ TEN

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

4-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 19 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-5  |  Home

13
Key Game
Dre'Mont Jones
KEY GAME

Dre'Mont Jones

#5 | Defensive End
@
Joey Slye
KEY GAME

Joey Slye

#6 | Place kicker
Player
Dre'Mont Jones None-None
Joey Slye None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
PATRIOTS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

36.0%

Titans Cover

64.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TEN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

NE By 1-6 points

16.9%

NE By 7-13 points

18.5%

TEN By 1-6 points

14.2%

TEN By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19
NEW ENGLAND
14
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u42.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 NE @ TEN 31 - 13
Nov 3, 2024 NE @ TEN 17 - 20
Nov 28, 2021 TEN @ NE 13 - 36
Jan 4, 2020 TEN @ NE 20 - 13
Nov 11, 2018 NE @ TEN 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.0% more
New England: 243.8 vs Tennessee: 173.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +27.3% more
New England: 5.8 vs Tennessee: 4.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.8% more
New England: 330.9 vs Tennessee: 252.0
First Downs (L5) +17.7% more
New England: 19.5 vs Tennessee: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 19.0 31
TEN Score 14.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 19.5 16.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 173.1 / 243.8 216.0 / 212.0
Rushing Yards 78.8 / 87.1 39.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 252.0 / 330.9 255.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 5.8 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
NE
TEN
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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