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CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

3-3  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-3  |  Home

6
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Myles Bradley
KEY GAME

Myles Bradley

#23 | Defensive End
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Myles Bradley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
100%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
0%
C MICHIGAN --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Bowling Green)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

30.9%

Bowling Green Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

CMU By 1-6 points

12.9%

CMU By 7-13 points

9.6%

BGSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

BGSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
46
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
27
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Bowling Green Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Bowling Green (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 CMU @ BGSU 27 - 6
Nov 5, 2024 BGSU @ CMU 23 - 13
Oct 22, 2022 BGSU @ CMU 34 - 18
Oct 19, 2019 CMU @ BGSU 38 - 20
Nov 10, 2018 BGSU @ CMU 24 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +87.0% more
Bowling Green: 1.6 vs Central Michigan: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.4% more
Central Michigan: 214.8 vs Bowling Green: 125.9
First Downs (L5) +18.0% more
Central Michigan: 19.0 vs Bowling Green: 15.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
Central Michigan: 364.5 vs Bowling Green: 300.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 39.0 27
BGSU Score 46.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 19.0 14.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 125.9 / 214.8 157.0 / 203.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 300.7 / 364.5 310.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
CMU
BGSU
CMU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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