Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Boston College CONN @ BC

UCONN

UCONNCONN

4-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
Hayden Pegg
KEY GAME

Hayden Pegg

#37 | Linebacker
@
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Hayden Pegg None-None
Luca Lombardo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
100%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
0%
UCONN --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Boston College)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

1.6%

Boston College Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BC -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

CONN By 1-6 points

1.0%

CONN By 7-13 points

0.4%

BC By 1-6 points

2.9%

BC By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
UCONN
46
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
17
UCONN
27
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boston College Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Boston College Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boston College (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Boston College (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 CONN @ BC 38 - 23
Oct 28, 2023 CONN @ BC 14 - 21
Oct 29, 2022 BC @ CONN 3 - 13
Nov 18, 2017 BC @ CONN 39 - 16
Nov 19, 2016 CONN @ BC 0 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +168.0% more
Boston College: 2.1 vs UConn: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.3% more
UConn: 174.5 vs Boston College: 86.8
Total Yards (L5) +32.1% more
UConn: 446.0 vs Boston College: 302.8
First Downs (L5) +18.6% more
UConn: 20.7 vs Boston College: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 16.0 38
BC Score 46.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 20.7 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 86.8 / 174.5 191.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 302.8 / 446.0 395.0 / 455.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
BC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
CONN
BC
CONN
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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