Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ UMass BUFF @ MASS

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

3-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 2:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Will Clark
KEY GAME

Will Clark

#11 | EDGE
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Will Clark None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
0%
📊
UMASS
100%
BUFFALO --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BuffaloBUFF (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

30.9%

UMass Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MASS +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)

BUFF By 1-6 points

16.5%

BUFF By 7-13 points

19.3%

MASS By 1-6 points

12.9%

MASS By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
46
BUFFALO
39
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
31
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buffalo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UMass (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim UMass (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 BUFF @ MASS 28 - 21
Sep 14, 2024 MASS @ BUFF 3 - 34
Oct 15, 2022 BUFF @ MASS 34 - 7
Nov 27, 2015 MASS @ BUFF 31 - 26
Nov 28, 2014 BUFF @ MASS 41 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.7% more
Buffalo: 160.1 vs Massachusetts: 61.4
Total Yards (L5) +31.9% more
Buffalo: 363.2 vs Massachusetts: 247.3
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
Buffalo: 19.4 vs Massachusetts: 16.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Buffalo: 0.4 vs Massachusetts: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 46.0 28
MASS Score 39.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 19.4 11.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 61.4 / 160.1 187.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 247.3 / 363.2 306.0 / 475.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BUFF
MASS
BUFF
ML
0% 0-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
ATS
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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