Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Ohio NIU @ OHIO

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-5  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

3-3  |  Home

48
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Derek Reagans
KEY GAME

Derek Reagans

#98 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Derek Reagans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
0%
📊
OHIO
100%
N ILLINOIS --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Northern Illinois)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

97.7%

Ohio Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NIU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

NIU By 1-6 points

3.8%

NIU By 7-13 points

8.8%

OHIO By 1-6 points

1.4%

OHIO By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
11
OHIO
Simulated Score
24
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
27
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI N Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI N Illinois (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Ohio (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 NIU @ OHIO 21 - 48
Oct 14, 2023 OHIO @ NIU 13 - 23
Oct 22, 2022 NIU @ OHIO 17 - 24
Oct 12, 2019 NIU @ OHIO 39 - 36
Oct 13, 2018 OHIO @ NIU 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +59.5% more
Ohio: 22.0 vs Northern Illinois: 13.8
Total Yards (L5) +51.2% more
Ohio: 411.6 vs Northern Illinois: 272.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Ohio: 202.4 vs Northern Illinois: 169.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs Northern Illinois: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 39.0 21
OHIO Score 11.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 13.8 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 202.4 / 169.0 333.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 411.6 / 272.2 538.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
OHIO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
NIU
OHIO
NIU
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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