Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wyoming @ Air Force WYO @ AFA

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

3-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
@
Luke Fisher
KEY GAME

Luke Fisher

#0 | Linebacker
Player
Bart Edmiston None-None
Luke Fisher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WYOMING
100%
📊
AIR FORCE
0%
WYOMING --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Air Force)
WyomingWYO (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wyoming Cover

30.9%

Air Force Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AFA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

WYO By 1-6 points

12.9%

WYO By 7-13 points

9.6%

AFA By 1-6 points

16.5%

AFA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WYOMING
46
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
20
WYOMING
24
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Air Force (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Air Force (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 WYO @ AFA 21 - 24
Sep 28, 2024 AFA @ WYO 19 - 31
Oct 14, 2023 WYO @ AFA 27 - 34
Sep 16, 2022 AFA @ WYO 14 - 17
Oct 9, 2021 WYO @ AFA 14 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +135.2% more
Air Force: 301.2 vs Wyoming: 128.0
Total Yards (L5) +38.6% more
Air Force: 506.8 vs Wyoming: 365.5
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
Air Force: 25.0 vs Wyoming: 20.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs Wyoming: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WYO Score 39.0 21
AFA Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 20.2 19.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 301.2 / 128.0 330.0 / 198.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 506.8 / 365.5 363.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WYO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WYO
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
WYO
AFA
WYO
ML
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
67% 2-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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