Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Ball State AKR @ BALL

AKRON

AKRONAKR

2-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

2-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Carson Holmer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
100%
📊
BALL STATE
0%
AKRON --
BALL STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Ball State)
AkronAKR (-3.5) 0 Ball StateBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

30.9%

Ball State Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

AKR By 1-6 points

12.9%

AKR By 7-13 points

9.6%

BALL By 1-6 points

16.5%

BALL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
AKRON
46
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
23
AKRON
27
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ball State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ball State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Ball State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 AKR @ BALL 28 - 42
Nov 2, 2021 BALL @ AKR 31 - 25
Oct 7, 2017 BALL @ AKR 3 - 31
Oct 22, 2016 AKR @ BALL 35 - 25
Oct 25, 2014 AKR @ BALL 21 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
Ball State: 1.2 vs Akron: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +23.3% more
Akron: 17.9 vs Ball State: 13.7
Total Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Akron: 319.8 vs Ball State: 254.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Akron: 0.4 vs Ball State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 39.0 28
BALL Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.7 / 17.9 17.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 113.6 / 117.0 216.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 254.3 / 319.8 374.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
AKR
BALL
AKR
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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