Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Penn State @ Iowa PSU @ IOWA

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

4-2  |  Home

25
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Deshaun Lee
KEY GAME

Deshaun Lee

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Deshaun Lee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
100%
📊
IOWA
0%
PENN STATE --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Iowa)
Penn StatePSU (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

30.9%

Iowa Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

PSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

IOWA By 1-6 points

16.5%

IOWA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
PENN STATE
46
IOWA
Simulated Score
17
PENN STATE
24
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Iowa (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 PSU @ IOWA 24 - 25
Sep 23, 2023 IOWA @ PSU 0 - 31
Oct 9, 2021 PSU @ IOWA 20 - 23
Nov 21, 2020 IOWA @ PSU 41 - 21
Oct 12, 2019 PSU @ IOWA 17 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Iowa: 0.5 vs Penn State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
Penn State: 1.2 vs Iowa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 39.0 24
IOWA Score 46.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 18.3 11.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 170.3 / 162.8 245.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 318.3 / 337.2 313.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
IOWA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
IOWA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
PSU
IOWA
PSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Michigan's $12.5M Gamble on Bryce Underwood: No Return Yet
sportingnews 1 day, 23 hours ago
Ohio State vs. Iowa Draws Nearly 6 Million Viewers, Tops Week 5 …
yahoo 1 day, 23 hours ago
Pat McAfee Pledges $1 Million to Iowa Children's Hospital After …
awfulannouncing 3 days ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago