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GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-5  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

2-4  |  Home

41
Key Game
Demonte Gaston
KEY GAME

Demonte Gaston

#3 | Safety
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Demonte Gaston None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
0%
GEORGIA ST --
GA SOUTHERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Georgia Southern)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

30.9%

GA Southern Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GASO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GAST By 1-6 points

12.9%

GAST By 7-13 points

9.6%

GASO By 1-6 points

16.5%

GASO By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
GEORGIA STATE
46
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
27
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI GA Southern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim GA Southern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI GA Southern (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim GA Southern (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o72.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u72.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 GAST @ GASO 24 - 41
Sep 28, 2024 GASO @ GAST 38 - 21
Oct 26, 2023 GAST @ GASO 27 - 44
Oct 8, 2022 GASO @ GAST 33 - 41
Oct 30, 2021 GAST @ GASO 21 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.4% more
Georgia Southern: 1.7 vs Georgia State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.8% more
Georgia Southern: 111.5 vs Georgia State: 80.9
First Downs (L5) +9.5% more
Georgia Southern: 20.9 vs Georgia State: 19.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 39.0 24
GASO Score 46.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 19.1 25.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 111.5 / 80.9 208.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.69 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 358.9 / 343.8 420.0 / 444.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
GASO
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
GAST
GASO
GAST
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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