MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
4-2 | Road
17
UCLA
UCLAUCLA
2-4 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Mateen Bhaghani
#15 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
| Mateen Bhaghani | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
100%
UCLA
0%
MARYLAND
--
UCLA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UCLA)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)
MD By 1-6 points
12.9%
MD By 7-13 points
9.6%
UCLA By 1-6 points
16.5%
UCLA By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
39
MARYLAND
UCLA
46
UCLA
Simulated Score
Maryland
24
MARYLAND
UCLA
28
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
UCLA
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
UCLA
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UCLA (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
UCLA (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 26, 2026
UCLA @ MD
54 - 3
Oct 18, 2025
MD @ UCLA
17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+106.4% more
UCLA: 192.9
vs
Maryland: 93.5
Total Yards (L5)
+13.6% more
UCLA: 384.0
vs
Maryland: 338.0
First Downs (L5)
+10.5% more
UCLA: 19.8
vs
Maryland: 17.9
Turnovers (L5)
+25.0% more
Maryland: 0.6
vs
UCLA: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
39.0
17
UCLA Score
46.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.8 / 17.9
21.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
192.9 / 93.5
193.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.41 / 0.35
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
384.0 / 338.0
414.0 / 337.0
Turnovers
0.3 / 0.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
UCLA
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
UCLA
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
MD
UCLA
MD
ML
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
0%
0-5
0%
0-3-1
0%
0-5
TTL
50%
2-2
60%
3-2
25%
1-3
40%
2-3
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