Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida St @ Stanford FSU @ STAN

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 10:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

2-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Deante McCray
KEY GAME

Deante McCray

#8 | Defensive Lineman
@
Emmet Kenney
KEY GAME

Emmet Kenney

#13 | Place kicker
Player
Deante McCray None-None
Emmet Kenney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
FLORIDA ST --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Florida StFSU (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

30.9%

Stanford Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STAN +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

FSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

FSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

STAN By 1-6 points

12.9%

STAN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
46
FLORIDA STATE
39
STANFORD
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA STATE
34
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Stanford Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stanford (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Stanford (+17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 FSU @ STAN 13 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.4% more
Florida State: 217.1 vs Stanford: 79.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Florida State: 1.9 vs Stanford: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Florida State: 469.7 vs Stanford: 364.5
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Florida State: 24.7 vs Stanford: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 46.0 13
STAN Score 39.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 24.7 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 79.4 / 217.1 132.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 364.5 / 469.7 293.0 / 444.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
FSU
STAN
FSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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