Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Liberty NMSU @ LIB

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

2-4  |  Home

30
Key Game
Josiah Charles
KEY GAME

Josiah Charles

#1 | Cornerback
@
Nathan Pirolli
KEY GAME

Nathan Pirolli

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Josiah Charles None-None
Nathan Pirolli None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
0%
📊
LIBERTY
100%
NEW MEXICO ST --
LIBERTY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (New Mexico State)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 LibertyLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

97.7%

Liberty Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NMSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

NMSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

LIB By 1-6 points

1.4%

LIB By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NEW MEXICO STATE
11
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
17
NEW MEXICO STATE
31
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Liberty Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim Liberty (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2025 NMSU @ LIB 27 - 30
Sep 7, 2024 LIB @ NMSU 30 - 24
Dec 1, 2023 NMSU @ LIB 35 - 49
Sep 9, 2023 NMSU @ LIB 17 - 33
Nov 26, 2022 NMSU @ LIB 49 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.5 vs Liberty: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +125.9% more
Liberty: 164.0 vs New Mexico State: 72.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 39.0 27
LIB Score 11.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 18.3 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 164.0 / 72.6 114.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 332.8 / 331.9 293.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
NMSU
LIB
NMSU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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