Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ South Alabama ARST @ USA

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

2-4  |  Road

15
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 7:30 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-5  |  Home

14
Key Game
Joe Drew
KEY GAME

Joe Drew

#16 | Safety
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Joe Drew None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
100%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
ARKANSAS ST --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (South Alabama)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

30.9%

South Alabama Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

ARST By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARST By 7-13 points

9.6%

USA By 1-6 points

16.5%

USA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
ARKANSAS STATE
46
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
24
ARKANSAS STATE
31
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim South Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim South Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2025 ARST @ USA 15 - 14
Oct 5, 2024 USA @ ARST 16 - 18
Nov 11, 2023 ARST @ USA 14 - 21
Oct 29, 2022 USA @ ARST 31 - 3
Oct 30, 2021 ARST @ USA 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +93.5% more
South Alabama: 219.0 vs Arkansas State: 113.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
South Alabama: 1.2 vs Arkansas State: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +8.1% more
South Alabama: 386.5 vs Arkansas State: 357.5
First Downs (L5) +9.1% more
Arkansas State: 21.4 vs South Alabama: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 39.0 15
USA Score 46.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 21.4 16.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 219.0 / 113.2 160.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 386.5 / 357.5 278.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
ARST
USA
ARST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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