Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Western KY FIU @ WKU

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

2-3  |  Road

25
FINAL
Tue, Oct 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

5-1  |  Home

6
Key Game
Demetrius Hill
KEY GAME

Demetrius Hill

#3 | Defensive Back
@
👤
KEY GAME

Elin Jones

#50 | Defensive End
Player
Demetrius Hill None-None
Elin Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
0%
📊
WESTERN KY
100%
FIU --
WESTERN KY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Florida International)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 Western KYWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

93.3%

Western KY Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FIU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-6 points

7.9%

FIU By 7-13 points

14.6%

WKU By 1-6 points

3.8%

WKU By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
11
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
20
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
38
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI FIU Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Western KY Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI FIU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim Western KY (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2025 FIU @ WKU 25 - 6
Nov 25, 2023 WKU @ FIU 41 - 28
Sep 24, 2022 FIU @ WKU 0 - 73
Oct 23, 2021 WKU @ FIU 34 - 19
Nov 21, 2020 FIU @ WKU 21 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.1% more
Florida International: 2.7 vs Western Kentucky: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Florida International: 160.1 vs Western Kentucky: 120.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5 vs Florida International: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +16.7% more
Western Kentucky: 20.3 vs Florida International: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 32.0 25
WKU Score 11.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 17.4 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 120.5 / 160.1 116.0 / 249.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 392.8 / 354.6 341.0 / 453.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
FIU
WKU
FIU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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