Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Jax State DEL @ JXST

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

3-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Wed, Oct 15 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

3-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Trace Scott III
KEY GAME

Trace Scott III

#33 | Defensive Tackle
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Trace Scott III None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
100%
📊
JAX STATE
0%
DELAWARE --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Jacksonville State)
DelawareDEL (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

30.9%

Jax State Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

DEL By 1-6 points

12.9%

DEL By 7-13 points

9.6%

JXST By 1-6 points

16.5%

JXST By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
DELAWARE
46
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
24
DELAWARE
27
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Jax State Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2025 DEL @ JXST 25 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +120.1% more
Jacksonville State: 299.7 vs Delaware: 136.2
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Jacksonville State: 1.6 vs Delaware: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Jacksonville State: 448.5 vs Delaware: 392.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 39.0 25
JXST Score 46.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 23.6 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 299.7 / 136.2 255.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 448.5 / 392.5 388.0 / 456.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
DEL
JXST
DEL
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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