Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ East Carolina TLSA @ ECU

TULSA

TULSATLSA

2-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Thu, Oct 16 • 7:30 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

3-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
C.J. Turner
KEY GAME

C.J. Turner

#35 | Linebacker
@
Kyler Pearson
KEY GAME

Kyler Pearson

#0 | Wide Receiver
Player
C.J. Turner None-None
Kyler Pearson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
100%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
0%
TULSA --
EAST CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (East Carolina)
TulsaTLSA (-3.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

1.6%

East Carolina Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

TLSA By 1-6 points

1.0%

TLSA By 7-13 points

0.4%

ECU By 1-6 points

2.9%

ECU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
TULSA
46
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
28
TULSA
34
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim East Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
A
Sim East Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2025 TLSA @ ECU 27 - 41
Nov 14, 2024 ECU @ TLSA 38 - 31
Nov 25, 2023 TLSA @ ECU 29 - 27
Oct 30, 2020 ECU @ TLSA 30 - 34
Nov 30, 2019 TLSA @ ECU 49 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
East Carolina: 164.2 vs Tulsa: 120.3
First Downs (L5) +27.4% more
East Carolina: 23.4 vs Tulsa: 18.3
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
East Carolina: 411.9 vs Tulsa: 333.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
East Carolina: 0.5 vs Tulsa: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 16.0 27
ECU Score 46.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 18.3 27.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 164.2 / 120.3 268.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.32
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 411.9 / 333.4 568.0 / 398.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
TLSA
ECU
TLSA
ML
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Red River Rivalry 2026: Essential Fan Guide for Sooners vs. Long…
news9 1 day, 6 hours ago
NFL Veterans Fire Back at Deion Sanders Hot Seat Talk: 'Stupides…
yahoo 2 days, 18 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago