TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
1-0-0 | Road
3
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
0-1-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 4.11 | 0.879 | -- |
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.11
GAA
--
0.879
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
RED WINGS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TOR By 1 goal
6.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
3.7%
DET By 1 goal
17.5%
DET By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+23.2%
Detroit: 24.9%
vs
Toronto: 1.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.0% more
Detroit: 31.0
vs
Toronto: 25.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.3% more
Toronto: 19.8
vs
Detroit: 13.2
Hits (L5)
+17.1% more
Toronto: 30.8
vs
Detroit: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
3
DET Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.2 / 19.8
14.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
56.5 / 58.2
51.9 / 48.1
Hits
25.6 / 30.8
15.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
24.9 / 1.7
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.0 / 25.8
35.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
2.7 / 3.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
0%
0-3
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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