Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Ravens LAR @ BAL

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

3-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Oct 12 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Xavier Smith
KEY GAME

Xavier Smith

#19 | Wide Receiver
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Xavier Smith None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
RAVENS
100%
RAMS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Los Angeles)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

84.1%

Ravens Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

LAR By 1-6 points

12.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

19.0%

BAL By 1-6 points

7.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
41
LOS ANGELES
27
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
27
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ravens Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Ravens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 68.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 LAR @ BAL 17 - 3
Dec 10, 2023 LAR @ BAL 31 - 37
Jan 2, 2022 LAR @ BAL 20 - 19
Nov 25, 2019 BAL @ LAR 45 - 6
Nov 22, 2015 LAR @ BAL 13 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.2% more
Los Angeles: 310.6 vs Baltimore: 192.0
First Downs (L5) +27.2% more
Los Angeles: 23.3 vs Baltimore: 16.9
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Los Angeles: 415.8 vs Baltimore: 305.1
Turnovers (L5) +37.1% more
Baltimore: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 41.0 17
BAL Score 27.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 23.3 19.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 192.0 / 310.6 117.0 / 167.0
Rushing Yards 113.1 / 105.2 179.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 305.1 / 415.8 296.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.4 3.9 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
LAR
BAL
LAR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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