MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
0-0-0 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 3.07 | 0.880 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.01 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.07
GAA
Ldr 2.01
0.880
Save %
Ldr 0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
CANADIENS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MTL By 1 goal
12.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 29, 2026
MTL @ TOR
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
TOR @ MTL
1 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
TOR @ MTL
2 - 5
Oct 8, 2025
MTL @ TOR
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+129.1% more
Toronto: 26.8
vs
Montreal: 11.7
Takeaways (L5)
+8.1% more
Toronto: 3.5
vs
Montreal: 3.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.2%
Toronto: 55.3%
vs
Montreal: 51.1%
Hits (L5)
+21.7% more
Montreal: 36.7
vs
Toronto: 28.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
2
TOR Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
26.8 / 11.7
17.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
55.3 / 51.1
59.3 / 40.7
Hits
28.8 / 36.7
35.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
588.0 / 2115.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.8 / 27.2
27.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MTL
TOR
MTL
ML
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
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