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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

0-0-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

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3
Goaltending
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
@
Alec Regula
GOALTENDER

Alec Regula

#75 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dustin Wolf None-None 2.79 0.914 --
Alec Regula None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.79 GAA --
0.914 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
OILERS
0%
FLAMES --
OILERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Edmonton)
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 OilersEDM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

6.7%

Oilers Cover

93.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

CGY By 1 goal

2.8%

CGY By 2-3 goals

1.2%

EDM By 1 goal

12.1%

EDM By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
CALGARY
4
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
3
CALGARY
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oilers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 EDM @ CGY 3 - 4
Dec 27, 2025 EDM @ CGY 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2025 CGY @ EDM 1 - 5
Oct 8, 2025 CGY @ EDM 4 - 3
Mar 29, 2025 CGY @ EDM 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +24.6% more
Edmonton: 18.5 vs Calgary: 14.9
Hits (L5) +16.8% more
Edmonton: 20.7 vs Calgary: 17.7
Takeaways (L5) +41.2% more
Calgary: 3.4 vs Edmonton: 2.0
Power Play % (L5) +21.2%
Calgary: 32.5% vs Edmonton: 11.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 1.0 4
EDM Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.5 / 14.9 18.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 47.6 / 51.0 48.3 / 51.7
Hits 20.7 / 17.7 23.0 / 35.0
Power Play % 11.3 / 32.5 50.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 30.2 / 30.1 35.0 / 22.0
Takeaways 2.0 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
56%MONEY44%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
CGY
EDM
CGY
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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