Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Akron M-OH @ AKR

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

2-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

2-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
William Goodvine III
KEY GAME

William Goodvine III

#97 | Defensive Lineman
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
William Goodvine III None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
0%
📊
AKRON
100%
MIAMI OH --
AKRON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Miami (OH))
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 AkronAKR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

64.0%

Akron Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around M-OH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

M-OH By 1-6 points

16.9%

M-OH By 7-13 points

18.5%

AKR By 1-6 points

14.2%

AKR By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
MIAMI (OH)
11
AKRON
Simulated Score
17
MIAMI (OH)
31
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami OH Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Akron Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami OH (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Akron (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 M-OH @ AKR 20 - 7
Nov 8, 2023 AKR @ M-OH 0 - 19
Oct 29, 2022 M-OH @ AKR 27 - 9
Oct 16, 2021 AKR @ M-OH 21 - 34
Nov 28, 2020 M-OH @ AKR 38 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Miami (OH): 177.5 vs Akron: 144.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Miami (OH): 375.3 vs Akron: 343.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 16.0 20
AKR Score 11.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 19.2 17.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 144.5 / 177.5 62.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 343.3 / 375.3 273.0 / 350.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
M-OH
AKR
M-OH
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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