Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ James Madison UL @ JMU

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

2-3  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

4-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Tony Sterner None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
JAMES MADISON
0%
LOUISIANA --
JAMES MADISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (James Madison)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

30.9%

James Madison Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

UL By 1-6 points

12.9%

UL By 7-13 points

9.6%

JMU By 1-6 points

16.5%

JMU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
LOUISIANA
46
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
20
LOUISIANA
31
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim James Madison Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UL @ JMU 14 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.9% more
James Madison: 238.1 vs Louisiana: 210.9
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs Louisiana: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +60.6% more
Louisiana: 1.4 vs James Madison: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 39.0 14
JMU Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 20.8 21.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 238.1 / 210.9 187.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 375.0 / 369.2 477.0 / 288.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.4 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
UL
JMU
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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