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PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

3-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Abe Ibrahim
KEY GAME

Abe Ibrahim

#52 | Linebacker
@
Deante McCray
KEY GAME

Deante McCray

#8 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Abe Ibrahim None-None
Deante McCray None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
PITT --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Florida State)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

30.9%

Florida St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

PITT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PITT By 7-13 points

9.6%

FSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

FSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
PITTSBURGH
46
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
31
PITTSBURGH
24
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Florida St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Pitt (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 PITT @ FSU 34 - 31
Nov 4, 2023 FSU @ PITT 24 - 7
Nov 7, 2020 PITT @ FSU 41 - 17
Sep 2, 2013 FSU @ PITT 41 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +93.6% more
Florida State: 240.6 vs Pittsburgh: 124.3
Turnovers (L5) +32.8% more
Florida State: 2.3 vs Pittsburgh: 1.7
First Downs (L5) +18.7% more
Florida State: 26.6 vs Pittsburgh: 22.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Florida State: 497.1 vs Pittsburgh: 419.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 39.0 34
FSU Score 46.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.6 / 22.4 21.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 240.6 / 124.3 170.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 497.1 / 419.6 415.0 / 476.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
PITT
FSU
PITT
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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