Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ Ole Miss WSU @ MISS

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

3-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

5-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Jack Stevens None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
WASHINGTON ST --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Ole Miss)
Washington StWSU (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

30.9%

Ole Miss Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

WSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

MISS By 1-6 points

16.5%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WASHINGTON STATE
46
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
24
WASHINGTON STATE
38
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 WSU @ MISS 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +91.2% more
Ole Miss: 189.6 vs Washington State: 99.2
Total Yards (L5) +53.2% more
Ole Miss: 508.3 vs Washington State: 331.8
First Downs (L5) +33.4% more
Ole Miss: 25.5 vs Washington State: 19.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.5 vs Washington State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 39.0 21
MISS Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 19.1 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 189.6 / 99.2 186.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.55
Total Yards 508.3 / 331.8 439.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
WSU
MISS
WSU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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