Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Kent State MASS @ KENT

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-5  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 2:30 PM ET
Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

1-4  |  Home

42
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Clinton Robinson
KEY GAME

Clinton Robinson

#38 | Defensive Back
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Clinton Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
100%
📊
KENT STATE
0%
UMASS --
KENT STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kent State)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

30.9%

Kent State Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

MASS By 1-6 points

12.9%

MASS By 7-13 points

9.6%

KENT By 1-6 points

16.5%

KENT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MASSACHUSETTS
46
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
24
MASSACHUSETTS
27
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kent State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kent State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kent State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Kent State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 MASS @ KENT 6 - 42
Oct 17, 2015 KENT @ MASS 15 - 10
Oct 11, 2014 MASS @ KENT 40 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Kent State: 1.5 vs Massachusetts: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
Massachusetts: 13.8 vs Kent State: 11.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Massachusetts: 70.0 vs Kent State: 60.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 39.0 6
KENT Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 11.5 / 13.8 17.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 60.5 / 70.0 151.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 225.6 / 235.5 330.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
KENT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
MASS
KENT
MASS
ML
100% 5-0
0% 0-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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