Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Georgia St APP @ GAST

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

3-2  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Jackson Grier
KEY GAME

Jackson Grier

#13 | Wide Receiver
@
Tyson McCrary
KEY GAME

Tyson McCrary

#32 | Cornerback
Player
Jackson Grier None-None
Tyson McCrary None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
100%
📊
GEORGIA ST
0%
APP STATE --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Georgia State)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

1.6%

Georgia St Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GAST -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

APP By 1-6 points

1.0%

APP By 7-13 points

0.4%

GAST By 1-6 points

2.9%

GAST By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
APP STATE
46
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
20
APP STATE
31
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Georgia St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 APP @ GAST 41 - 20
Oct 26, 2024 GAST @ APP 26 - 33
Nov 11, 2023 APP @ GAST 42 - 14
Oct 19, 2022 GAST @ APP 17 - 42
Oct 2, 2021 APP @ GAST 45 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.6% more
App State: 2.0 vs Georgia State: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.1% more
App State: 139.9 vs Georgia State: 82.4
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
App State: 371.8 vs Georgia State: 325.3
First Downs (L5) +12.4% more
App State: 19.1 vs Georgia State: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 16.0 41
GAST Score 46.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 19.1 24.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 82.4 / 139.9 78.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 325.3 / 371.8 381.0 / 435.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
APP
GAST
APP
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-5
0% 0-4
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 43 minutes ago
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
Dave Portnoy Axed from Fox's Big Noon Kickoff: Ohio State Blamed…
huffpost 4 days ago