Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / TCU @ Kansas St TCU @ KSU

TCU

TCUTCU

4-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

2-4  |  Home

41
Key Game
Nate McCashland
KEY GAME

Nate McCashland

#99 | Place kicker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Nate McCashland None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
100%
📊
KANSAS ST
0%
TCU --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas State)
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

30.9%

Kansas St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

TCU By 1-6 points

12.9%

TCU By 7-13 points

9.6%

KSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

KSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TCU
46
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
TCU
27
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 TCU @ KSU 28 - 41
Oct 21, 2023 TCU @ KSU 3 - 41
Dec 3, 2022 KSU @ TCU 31 - 28
Oct 22, 2022 KSU @ TCU 28 - 38
Oct 30, 2021 TCU @ KSU 12 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.9% more
Kansas State: 171.0 vs TCU: 100.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
TCU: 0.5 vs Kansas State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 39.0 28
KSU Score 46.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.6 20.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 171.0 / 100.1 145.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 404.3 / 395.4 343.0 / 448.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
TCU
KSU
TCU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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