Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ Oregon St WAKE @ ORST

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

3-2  |  Road

39
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-6  |  Home

14
Key Game
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Schuster
KEY GAME

Jacob Schuster

#62 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Connor Calvert None-None
Jacob Schuster None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
0%
📊
OREGON ST
100%
WAKE FOREST --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Wake Forest)
Wake ForestWAKE (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

94.2%

Oregon St Cover

5.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WAKE -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)

WAKE By 1-6 points

7.2%

WAKE By 7-13 points

13.8%

ORST By 1-6 points

3.3%

ORST By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
33
WAKE FOREST
11
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
24
WAKE FOREST
28
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wake Forest Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wake Forest (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Sim Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 WAKE @ ORST 39 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Wake Forest: 136.2 vs Oregon State: 109.3
Turnovers (L5) +41.5% more
Oregon State: 1.7 vs Wake Forest: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +14.8% more
Oregon State: 21.2 vs Wake Forest: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 33.0 39
ORST Score 11.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 18.5 22.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 109.3 / 136.2 134.0 / 198.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 369.4 / 377.9 309.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
WAKE
ORST
WAKE
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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