Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ W Michigan BALL @ WMU

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

2-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

3-3  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ameir Glenn
KEY GAME

Ameir Glenn

#56 | Defensive Tackle
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Ameir Glenn None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
BALL STATE --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Western Michigan)
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

30.9%

W Michigan Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

BALL By 1-6 points

12.9%

BALL By 7-13 points

9.6%

WMU By 1-6 points

16.5%

WMU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
BALL STATE
46
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
23
BALL STATE
27
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 BALL @ WMU 0 - 42
Oct 5, 2024 WMU @ BALL 45 - 42
Sep 30, 2023 BALL @ WMU 24 - 42
Sep 10, 2022 WMU @ BALL 37 - 30
Oct 9, 2021 BALL @ WMU 45 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +87.0% more
Western Michigan: 1.7 vs Ball State: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Western Michigan: 20.2 vs Ball State: 18.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Western Michigan: 174.0 vs Ball State: 160.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 39.0 0
WMU Score 46.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 18.0 25.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 174.0 / 160.3 219.0 / 20.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 331.0 / 337.5 461.0 / 88.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
BALL
WMU
BALL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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