MICHIGAN
MICHIGANMICH
4-1 | Road
13
USC
USCUSC
4-1 | Home
31
Key Game
KEY GAME
Hudson Hollenbeck
#90 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ryon Sayeri
#48 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Hudson Hollenbeck | None-None |
| Ryon Sayeri | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
0%
USC
100%
MICHIGAN
--
USC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
MICH By 1-6 points
16.9%
MICH By 7-13 points
18.5%
USC By 1-6 points
14.2%
USC By 7-13 points
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
16
MICHIGAN
USC
11
USC
Simulated Score
Michigan
24
MICHIGAN
USC
28
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Michigan
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
USC
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Michigan (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim
USC (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2025
MICH @ USC
13 - 31
Sep 21, 2024
USC @ MICH
24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+12.4% more
Michigan: 224.4
vs
USC: 196.7
Turnovers (L5)
+71.0% more
USC: 1.3
vs
Michigan: 0.6
First Downs (L5)
+35.8% more
USC: 26.7
vs
Michigan: 19.6
Total Yards (L5)
+24.3% more
USC: 519.3
vs
Michigan: 417.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
16.0
13
USC Score
11.0
31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
26.7 / 19.6
24.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
196.7 / 224.4
224.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.4
0.5 / 0.22
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards
519.3 / 417.7
489.0 / 316.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
USC
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
USC
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -5.9
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
MICH
USC
MICH
ML
100%
6-0
60%
3-2
83%
5-1
100%
5-0
ATS
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
TTL
50%
3-3
20%
1-4
50%
3-3
40%
2-3
Contextual Game News
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