Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ North Texas USF @ UNT

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

4-1  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

5-0  |  Home

36
Key Game
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
@
Brenden Reese
KEY GAME

Brenden Reese

#34 | Linebacker
Player
Nico Gramatica None-None
Brenden Reese None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
100%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
0%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Texas)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

30.9%

North Texas Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

USF By 1-6 points

12.9%

USF By 7-13 points

9.6%

UNT By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
SOUTH FLORIDA
46
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH FLORIDA
28
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim North Texas Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim North Texas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2025 USF @ UNT 63 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.9% more
South Florida: 2.0 vs North Texas: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.2% more
South Florida: 238.9 vs North Texas: 188.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
South Florida: 491.0 vs North Texas: 441.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 39.0 63
UNT Score 46.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 24.3 26.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 188.3 / 238.9 107.0 / 306.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 441.7 / 491.0 443.0 / 580.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
USF
UNT
USF
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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