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LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-4  |  Road

19
FINAL
Wed, Oct 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-4  |  Home

8
Key Game
Jiquavious Marshall
KEY GAME

Jiquavious Marshall

#2 | Cornerback
@
Nik Henry
KEY GAME

Nik Henry

#13 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jiquavious Marshall None-None
Nik Henry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
0%
📊
UTEP
100%
LIBERTY --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Liberty)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

97.7%

UTEP Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LIB -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LIB By 1-6 points

3.8%

LIB By 7-13 points

8.8%

UTEP By 1-6 points

1.4%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
LIBERTY
11
UTEP
Simulated Score
17
LIBERTY
38
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Liberty Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UTEP Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Liberty (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2025 LIB @ UTEP 19 - 8
Sep 14, 2024 UTEP @ LIB 10 - 28
Nov 25, 2023 LIB @ UTEP 42 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.5% more
Liberty: 166.0 vs UTEP: 98.7
Turnovers (L5) +34.5% more
UTEP: 2.8 vs Liberty: 2.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.0% more
UTEP: 333.6 vs Liberty: 297.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 39.0 19
UTEP Score 11.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 15.8 9.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 98.7 / 166.0 56.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 333.6 / 297.8 167.0 / 403.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 2.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
LIB
UTEP
LIB
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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