Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ Tulane ECU @ TULN

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

3-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Thu, Oct 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

4-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
@
Derrick Shepard Jr.
KEY GAME

Derrick Shepard Jr.

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
Derrick Shepard Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
100%
📊
TULANE
0%
EAST CAROLINA --
TULANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TULANE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Tulane)
East CarolinaECU (-3.5) 0 TulaneTULN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

30.9%

Tulane Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TULN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

ECU By 1-6 points

12.9%

ECU By 7-13 points

9.6%

TULN By 1-6 points

16.5%

TULN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
EAST CAROLINA
46
TULANE
Simulated Score
27
EAST CAROLINA
20
TULANE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tulane Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim East Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tulane (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim East Carolina (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2025 ECU @ TULN 19 - 26
Nov 4, 2023 TULN @ ECU 13 - 10
Oct 8, 2022 ECU @ TULN 9 - 24
Oct 2, 2021 TULN @ ECU 29 - 52
Nov 7, 2020 TULN @ ECU 38 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.1% more
Tulane: 183.0 vs East Carolina: 166.3
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Tulane: 0.6 vs East Carolina: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
East Carolina: 1.5 vs Tulane: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
East Carolina: 447.9 vs Tulane: 381.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 39.0 19
TULN Score 46.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 24.1 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 183.0 / 166.3 96.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 381.7 / 447.9 458.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
ECU
TULN
ECU
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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