INDIANA
PACERSIND
0-0 | Road
135
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
1-0 | Home
134
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
PACERS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
IND By 1-7 points
15.4%
IND By 8-14 points
5.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
106.86
INDIANA
Minnesota
113.82
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
MIN @ IND
124 - 104
Oct 26, 2025
IND @ MIN
110 - 114
Oct 7, 2025
IND @ MIN
135 - 134
Mar 24, 2025
MIN @ IND
103 - 119
Mar 17, 2025
IND @ MIN
132 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
Minnesota: 26.2
vs
Indiana: 21.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Minnesota: 42.6%
vs
Indiana: 37.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Minnesota: 48.2%
vs
Indiana: 43.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Minnesota: 78.8%
vs
Indiana: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
106.9
135
MIN Score
113.8
134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.6 / 37.0
47.2 / 43.5
Assists
26.2 / 21.3
26.0 / 32.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.9
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 43.5
47.8 / 47.9
Free Throw %
78.8 / 75.5
75.6 / 80.6
Rebounding
41.5 / 43.6
41.0 / 50.0
Steals
6.8 / 9.8
14.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 18.2
21.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
IND
MIN
IND
ML
54%
63-53
48%
47-50
54%
50-43
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
67-49
59%
57-40
54%
50-43
54%
45-38
TTL
63%
72-43-1
54%
52-45
100%
93-0
100%
83-0
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