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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

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6
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
RED WINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 Red WingsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

63.7%

Red Wings Cover

36.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

19.5%

TOR By 2-3 goals

26.4%

DET By 1 goal

13.9%

DET By 2-3 goals

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.23
TORONTO
2.53
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 DET @ TOR 2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025 TOR @ DET 2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025 DET @ TOR 3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025 TOR @ DET 3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025 TOR @ DET 5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +56.6% more
Toronto: 2.2 vs Detroit: 1.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +41.2% more
Toronto: 26.8 vs Detroit: 15.8
Hits (L5) +29.0% more
Toronto: 33.1 vs Detroit: 23.5
Faceoff % (L5) +12.2%
Toronto: 55.3% vs Detroit: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.2 5
DET Score 2.5 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-3
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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