MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
0-0 | Road
103
MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-1 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
HEAT
100%
BUCKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
22.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
19.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Miami
110.34
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
108
MILWAUKEE
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.4% more
Milwaukee: 44.5
vs
Miami: 40.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Milwaukee: 73.4%
vs
Miami: 69.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Milwaukee: 41.6%
vs
Miami: 38.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Milwaukee: 46.1%
vs
Miami: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
115.0
103
MIA Score
110.3
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 41.6
28.6 / 31.7
Assists
23.7 / 25.4
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 46.1
38.8 / 41.4
Free Throw %
69.7 / 73.4
67.9 / 69.2
Rebounding
40.3 / 44.5
60.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.1
8.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 13.7
23.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
46-50
64%
61-35
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
65-31
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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