MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
0-0 | Road
126
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
0-0 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
20.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
21.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
10.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
111.39
MINNESOTA
Denver
108.01
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
Minnesota: 4.9
vs
Denver: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Minnesota: 38.8%
vs
Denver: 30.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Minnesota: 46.8%
vs
Denver: 41.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
Denver: 48.6
vs
Minnesota: 41.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
111.4
126
DEN Score
108.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 38.8
39.3 / 50.0
Assists
21.8 / 23.4
27.0 / 32.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.9
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 46.8
54.7 / 51.1
Free Throw %
80.5 / 77.8
82.1 / 80.8
Rebounding
48.6 / 41.7
37.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.7
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 18.7
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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