Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Eagles DEN @ PHI

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

2-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

4-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
BRONCOS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Philadelphia)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

44.8%

Eagles Cover

55.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DEN By 1-6 points

15.8%

DEN By 7-13 points

13.9%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.8%

PHI By 7-13 points

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
25.95
DENVER
27.78
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
27
DENVER
24
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Broncos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 DEN @ PHI 21 - 17
Nov 14, 2021 PHI @ DEN 30 - 13
Nov 5, 2017 DEN @ PHI 23 - 51
Sep 29, 2013 PHI @ DEN 20 - 52
Dec 27, 2009 DEN @ PHI 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.0% more
Denver: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +36.6% more
Denver: 231.0 vs Philadelphia: 146.4
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Denver: 373.0 vs Philadelphia: 264.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.9% more
Denver: 5.8 vs Philadelphia: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 26.0 21
PHI Score 27.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 20.8 16.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 146.4 / 231.0 257.0 / 228.0
Rushing Yards 118.2 / 142.0 45.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 264.6 / 373.0 302.0 / 358.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 5.8 5.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DEN
PHI
DEN
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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