Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Ravens HOU @ BAL

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

1-3  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sun, Oct 5 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Zaire Mitchell-Paden
KEY GAME

Zaire Mitchell-Paden

#-- | Tight End
@
LaJohntay Wester
KEY GAME

LaJohntay Wester

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Zaire Mitchell-Paden None-None
LaJohntay Wester None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
TEXANS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.7 points (Baltimore)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

9.0%

Ravens Cover

91.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -18.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

HOU By 1-6 points

4.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

2.5%

BAL By 1-6 points

9.5%

BAL By 7-13 points

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16.35
HOUSTON
35.09
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ravens Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ravens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.7
D
Sim Ravens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2025 HOU @ BAL 44 - 10
Dec 25, 2024 BAL @ HOU 31 - 2
Jan 20, 2024 HOU @ BAL 10 - 34
Sep 10, 2023 HOU @ BAL 9 - 25
Sep 20, 2020 BAL @ HOU 33 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.6% more
Baltimore: 147.6 vs Houston: 113.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.2% more
Baltimore: 6.5 vs Houston: 5.2
First Downs (L5) +17.0% more
Baltimore: 19.4 vs Houston: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +14.0% more
Baltimore: 354.1 vs Houston: 310.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 16.4 44
BAL Score 35.1 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 16.6 12.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 206.5 / 196.7 163.0 / 250.0
Rushing Yards 147.6 / 113.9 44.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 354.1 / 310.5 207.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 5.2 5.2 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
BAL Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
HOU
BAL
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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