DETROIT
TIGERSDET
1-0 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
0-1 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | None-None | 108.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
108.00
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
TIGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.8%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3.16
DETROIT
Cleveland
4.35
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
181
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+67.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2
vs
Detroit: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+34.0% more
Cleveland: 0.8
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+14.9% more
Cleveland: 10.6
vs
Detroit: 9.2
Walks (L5)
+39.1% more
Detroit: 3.0
vs
Cleveland: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.2
1
CLE Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.0
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.5
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 11.3
11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 9.2
17.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54%
87-74
54%
86-73
49%
80-82
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-68
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-9
43%
69-90-2
46%
69-81-10
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