Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ Navy AFA @ NAVY

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-3  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

4-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Jacob Medina None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
100%
📊
NAVY
0%
AIR FORCE --
NAVY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
78.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Navy)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 NavyNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

3.2%

Navy Cover

96.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NAVY -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

AFA By 1-6 points

1.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

0.8%

NAVY By 1-6 points

4.8%

NAVY By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26
AIR FORCE
52
NAVY
Simulated Score
17
AIR FORCE
20
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Navy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Navy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Navy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
C
Sim Navy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 78.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 NAVY @ AFA 9 - 14
Oct 4, 2025 AFA @ NAVY 31 - 34
Oct 5, 2024 NAVY @ AFA 34 - 7
Oct 21, 2023 AFA @ NAVY 17 - 6
Oct 1, 2022 NAVY @ AFA 10 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.4% more
Navy: 312.4 vs Air Force: 251.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 26.0 31
NAVY Score 52.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 20.8 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 312.4 / 251.2 178.0 / 211.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 444.4 / 458.1 517.0 / 460.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
AFA
NAVY
AFA
ML
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
TTL
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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