Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas St @ Baylor KSU @ BAY

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

2-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

3-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Dylan Schaub
KEY GAME

Dylan Schaub

#93 | Long Snapper
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Dylan Schaub None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
0%
📊
BAYLOR
100%
KANSAS ST --
BAYLOR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (-3.5) 0 BaylorBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

97.7%

Baylor Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

KSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

BAY By 1-6 points

1.4%

BAY By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
KANSAS STATE
11
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS STATE
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Baylor Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kansas St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Baylor (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 KSU @ BAY 34 - 35
Nov 11, 2023 BAY @ KSU 25 - 59
Nov 12, 2022 KSU @ BAY 31 - 3
Nov 20, 2021 BAY @ KSU 20 - 10
Nov 28, 2020 KSU @ BAY 31 - 32
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +60.4% more
Baylor: 26.3 vs Kansas State: 16.4
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Baylor: 1.6 vs Kansas State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +44.0% more
Baylor: 509.1 vs Kansas State: 353.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Baylor: 0.4 vs Kansas State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 39.0 34
BAY Score 11.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.3 / 16.4 25.0 / 31.0
Rushing Yards 172.0 / 175.6 98.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 509.1 / 353.5 443.0 / 506.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
KSU
BAY
KSU
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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