WISCONSIN
WISCONSINWIS
2-2 | Road
10
MICHIGAN
MICHIGANMICH
3-1 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Mason Posa
#8 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Hudson Hollenbeck
#90 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mason Posa | None-None |
| Hudson Hollenbeck | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
100%
MICHIGAN
0%
WISCONSIN
--
MICHIGAN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
WIS By 1-6 points
2.9%
WIS By 7-13 points
1.3%
MICH By 1-6 points
6.5%
MICH By 7-13 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
0
WISCONSIN
Michigan
23
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
17
WISCONSIN
Michigan
27
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Michigan
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Michigan
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Michigan (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim
Michigan (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 23.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2025
WIS @ MICH
10 - 24
Oct 2, 2021
MICH @ WIS
38 - 17
Nov 14, 2020
WIS @ MICH
49 - 11
Sep 21, 2019
MICH @ WIS
14 - 35
Oct 13, 2018
WIS @ MICH
13 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+149.3% more
Michigan: 249.1
vs
Wisconsin: 99.9
Total Yards (L5)
+34.7% more
Michigan: 404.1
vs
Wisconsin: 300.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+8.0% more
Michigan: 0.4
vs
Wisconsin: 0.4
Turnovers (L5)
+36.0% more
Wisconsin: 1.4
vs
Michigan: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
0.0
10
MICH Score
23.0
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.9 / 18.5
19.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards
249.1 / 99.9
175.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.29
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
404.1 / 300.1
445.0 / 252.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
MICH
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 15.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
MICH
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +2.3
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
WIS
MICH
WIS
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
40%
2-3
ATS
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
TTL
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
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