Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ Temple UTSA @ TEM

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

2-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Dante Atton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
0%
📊
TEMPLE
100%
UTSA --
TEMPLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (UTSA)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 TempleTEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

98.9%

Temple Cover

1.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTSA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-6 points

2.2%

UTSA By 7-13 points

5.9%

TEM By 1-6 points

0.7%

TEM By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
45
UTSA
13
TEMPLE
Simulated Score
31
UTSA
17
TEMPLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTSA Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTSA (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim UTSA (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 UTSA @ TEM 21 - 27
Nov 22, 2024 TEM @ UTSA 27 - 51
Oct 7, 2023 UTSA @ TEM 49 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.7% more
UTSA: 1.0 vs Temple: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.7% more
UTSA: 199.8 vs Temple: 152.5
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
UTSA: 413.2 vs Temple: 324.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 45.0 21
TEM Score 13.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 18.8 15.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 152.5 / 199.8 129.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 324.1 / 413.2 309.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TEM Advantage
4-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
TEM
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEM
UTSA
TEM
UTSA
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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