Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Michigan @ UMass WMU @ MASS

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

2-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 2:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
100%
📊
UMASS
0%
W MICHIGAN --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Massachusetts)
W MichiganWMU (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

30.9%

UMass Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MASS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)

WMU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WMU By 7-13 points

9.6%

MASS By 1-6 points

16.5%

MASS By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WESTERN MICHIGAN
46
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN MICHIGAN
27
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UMass Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 WMU @ MASS 21 - 3
Oct 26, 2013 WMU @ MASS 31 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.8% more
Western Michigan: 152.4 vs Massachusetts: 76.6
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Western Michigan: 1.5 vs Massachusetts: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +27.6% more
Western Michigan: 18.8 vs Massachusetts: 13.6
Total Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Western Michigan: 306.5 vs Massachusetts: 223.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 39.0 21
MASS Score 46.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.6 / 18.8 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 76.6 / 152.4 57.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 223.2 / 306.5 260.0 / 380.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
WMU
MASS
WMU
ML
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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