Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Georgia St JMU @ GAST

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

3-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-3  |  Home

7
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Tyson McCrary
KEY GAME

Tyson McCrary

#32 | Cornerback
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Tyson McCrary None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
0%
📊
GEORGIA ST
100%
JAMES MADISON --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

99.9%

Georgia St Cover

0.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

0.4%

JMU By 7-13 points

1.5%

GAST By 1-6 points

0.1%

GAST By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
JAMES MADISON
0
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
20
JAMES MADISON
28
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Georgia St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 JMU @ GAST 14 - 7
Nov 9, 2024 GAST @ JMU 7 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 JMU @ GAST 42 - 14
Nov 19, 2022 GAST @ JMU 40 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.2% more
James Madison: 251.6 vs Georgia State: 105.1
First Downs (L5) +25.4% more
James Madison: 24.2 vs Georgia State: 18.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
James Madison: 0.5 vs Georgia State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
James Madison: 420.0 vs Georgia State: 363.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 42.0 14
GAST Score 0.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 24.2 14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 105.1 / 251.6 37.0 / 211.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 363.4 / 420.0 249.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
GAST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
GAST
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
JMU
GAST
JMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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