Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ N Illinois M-OH @ NIU

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

1-3  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Lazaro Rogers
KEY GAME

Lazaro Rogers

#21 | Running Back
@
Dev'ion Reynolds
KEY GAME

Dev'ion Reynolds

#9 | Cornerback
Player
Lazaro Rogers None-None
Dev'ion Reynolds None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
100%
📊
N ILLINOIS
0%
MIAMI OH --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

47.2%

N Illinois Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

M-OH By 1-6 points

16.1%

M-OH By 7-13 points

14.6%

NIU By 1-6 points

16.7%

NIU By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
23
MIAMI (OH)
24
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI (OH)
27
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI N Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI N Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim N Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 M-OH @ NIU 25 - 14
Nov 19, 2024 NIU @ M-OH 9 - 20
Nov 16, 2022 M-OH @ NIU 29 - 23
Oct 19, 2019 NIU @ M-OH 24 - 27
Nov 14, 2018 M-OH @ NIU 13 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.9% more
Miami (OH): 1.3 vs Northern Illinois: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +33.2% more
Miami (OH): 379.4 vs Northern Illinois: 253.5
First Downs (L5) +19.9% more
Miami (OH): 17.8 vs Northern Illinois: 14.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.7% more
Miami (OH): 167.7 vs Northern Illinois: 144.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 23.0 25
NIU Score 24.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.3 / 17.8 11.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 144.7 / 167.7 114.0 / 197.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 253.5 / 379.4 220.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
M-OH
NIU
M-OH
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 9 hours ago
Washington's Self-Inflicted Wounds Prove Costly in 25-21 Loss to…
yahoo 4 days, 21 hours ago
Washington Huskies Set for Big Ten Opener Against Minnesota, Deb…
yahoo 2 weeks ago
Kirby Smart Praises Brent Venables' Defensive Genius as Georgia …
si 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Bearcats Battle RedHawks for Victory Bell at TQL Stadium: A Hist…
si 3 weeks, 2 days ago